March 08, 2022

Truth is Always the First Casualty of War



First Published in Mar, 2022 on LI

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” - Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

The last few weeks couldn’t have proven the above more right.

When we entered this new decade, a lot of ppl were calling it similar to “Roaring 20s” . That we will see the growth and asset markets flourish like earlier times.

I also wanted that. We all got thrusted in the pandemic at the start of this decade. And now when we all collectively battled it for 2 years, the world is made to battle another calamity.

It’s like this decade is destined to be “eventful”.

But contrary to what many said, I somehow already felt this decade is going to be very eventful that would change the shape of the world for years to come.

I didn’t know that statement written in March 2020, in the below article would turn out to be so prophetic.



Last couple of weeks, we all know how things have unfolded. The social media, media and entire world has joined their support to condemn the war. And very rightly so.

However, there’s a lot that is happening, a lot of emotions running very high, and a lot of “hatred” being demonstrated if not, physical.

So, I think it’s imperative for me to write few things, with the sole purpose of collectively trying to piece the puzzle. To collectively try to connect the dots ourselves than what is being told to us.

This is the philosophy, I have always tried to share here:

Do not look upto anybody, Do not look down upon anybody. See things the way they are!

I would however, need your co-operation here. We all are driven by our subjective bias in life on many things. That’s our Prior Probability of making our judgements on any topic.

I would request you, to help me out here a bit. Lets’ all try to keep all our prior biases, our understanding of what we believe is the “right” a bit aside. At least while we go through this exercise of “connecting the dots”.

This is not meant to make you agree to any conclusion after the end of this. I would whole heartedly encourage you to make your own conclusions, your own interpretations. And your interpretations might differ with mine or others. That’s all fine.

But in the spirit of “Seeing things the way they are”, let’s try to make an attempt.

Before I start, I wanted to share few Principles that I first mentioned in the above article, which are also like a guiding light to me in almost all the things I see around me.

Whether it was knowing where WeWork is going, or on where Fossil fuels are heading to more than a year before we reached an Energy Crisis.

In some cases, I use all Principles and all are needed. In some, few.

These are the Sentinels that guide my Mental Models For the world.

I don’t want you to agree with all or even few of them. But if some makes sense, then in order for us to decipher few details in this article together, then Principle 1 and 5 would help us specifically on this topic. Please try to focus on these specifically for this topic, if you can.


With that said, let’s begin:

I think, it’s important to get some background context to this story.

I know many of you have by now done your own research into US/Soviet history, so I will try to keep this section brief, with focus on highlighting important events, that I believe will help us give some insight into someone’s character and if that event was important for future consequences. Our focus would be mainly around the time when Soviet Union disintegrated and Russian Federation as it exists came into being.

It’s not that the US, Soviet Cold War in the 50s isn’t important as that sowed the seeds of “mistrust” amongst two nuclear power, something that remains still until today. But it’s mainly that post Cold War end, what was the main events from both the sides, that led to even more environment of mistrust that would help us glean into the thinking of key people.

Before, we begin, let’s agree on one thing unequivocally: Any war is to be severely condemned. We can agree or disagree, on justifications of war by someone, but the act of War itself, is highly condemnable. No one wins in a war!

Lets start with US, Russia and Putin**

He specifically mentioned,

"Despite what we saw in the well-known American film, THE DAY AFTER, it can be said today, tomorrow will be a day of peace, a day less of fear and more of hope for the happiness of our children. The world can sigh in relief."

He ended his speech, by extending an hand of friendship.

“Today, free and democratic Russia is extending its hand of friendship to the people of America. Acting on the will of the people of Russia, I am inviting you, and through you the people of the United States, to join us in partnership, in the quest for freedom and justice in the 21st century.”

OR

It helps to understand, what was actually going on in US policymaker’s mind back then. One event that is quite important to see this, is when a document, around the same time in 1992, got produced- Wolfowitz Doctrine

It also helps to understand, that Paul Wolfowitz, who created that Doctrine, albeit unofficially, was the Under Secretary for Defense Policy, the department in-charge of Defense policy of the US.

The document was accidentally leaked to NYTimes, and was panned unequivocally as Imperialistic, as it basically said:

The United States, will never allow any other country to challenge it again. The United States MUST remain THE superior country, and we must watch out for Russia…





Those who have read the history or the narration from the Western perspective, have claimed that no such assurance was granted and nothing was signed. However to quote James Baker,



Both are correct. Technically, there isn’t an “agreement” signed. But in Principles it was. The Russians narrative is we trusted you on your assurance and words told to us by Baker et al. The West’s narrative is but we never signed anything.

So, let’s keep that distinction clear.

So, until now, we see, the set-up, the sequence of events that led to two Cold War fighting countries, start to lose mutual trust, they most gladly sought, at least on the Russians side.

Putin's arrival as President of Russia

However, what most ppl aren’t told, is that after getting elected, Putin actually met President Bill Clinton in 2000, and asked him if US would be ok Russia joining NATO.

This is an important event in my opinion.

Because it helps you glean some insight into someone’s thought process around these main issues. When Putin asked this to Clinton, by then Russia already felt “betrayed” by US on false NATO assurances given to them. Inspite of that, it appears from this request that, Putin, didn’t consider NATO as adversary, and felt to join forces with it. To make it stronger.

While, the West narrative is that Clinton, had no objection to that request, the inner details reveal that US establishment were never keen to have Russia join NATO. Russia was still considered by US policymakers as a “second rate” country which can never dare to be equal to US.

Not many also know, that post 9/11 attack on US, Putin called the then President George Bush, and offered any unconditional help to fight terrorists behind the attack. He offered his forces to fight the terrorists hiding even offering his Soviet bases.

In a stunning decision, the Russian president coordinated with central Asian nations to allow U.S. forces, for the first time, to use military bases of the former Soviet Union.

Phew, that’s a lot of background context.

But I feel it’s important to have some background understanding of sequence of events to better understand what could be the consequence arising from those.

My aim here is not to add much of my opinion on these events, but to present it as they occurred and what transpired, so we can see things “the way they are” and come to our own interpretations.

In order, to cover lot of things ahead, instead of keep getting into more details of history, lets jump circa 2008, where I think there was another important event in this timeline:

2008

As one of his first acts as President, Yanukovych signs an agreement with Russia, extending their lease on the Black Sea naval base in Crimea until at least 2042.

This part wasn’t liked by the Western Media. In fact, Luke Harding, for Guardian even wrote:

the most concrete sign yet that Ukraine is now back under Russia’s influence following Yanukovych’s victory in February’s presidential elections

Remember, just until Feb 2008, US Secretary of State was signing charters with Ukraine’s foreign minister to join NATO. This new President seemed to not go with that.

However, Yanukovych, was not without public support of NOT joining NATO. The public seemed to favor him on this decision, if polls results to be believed.

In a Pew Research Global poll conducted in 2010, many Ukrainians responded not interested in joining NATO



Now, there is a narrative from the West that Viktor Yanukovych, got elected with support from Putin. After all, he was pro-Russia as he came from Eastern Ukraine region, which is pre-dominantly Russian ethnics.

There are also some narrative, that he was one of the corrupt President for Ukraine. I will be surprised, if he wasn’t. So let’s also keep this thing in mind.

Here is where, things and narrative shifts depending upon which side’s narrative you listen.

What happened after the above deal conundrum, is a set of “anti-demonstrations” against Ukrainian President Yanukovych, in the “maidan”. The West media, started to portray those as “Putin led” insurgencies and a coup attempt at Ukraine’s govt.

However, Putin’s claim was it’s a West driven insurgency to topple Ukraine’s govt.

This is a very important event. Why?

Because immediately post this event, Putin, went and "annexed" Crimea.

On February 20th of 2014 the world was shocked by video footage of snipers firing on protesters in Kiev Ukraine.

Twenty one people were murdered, and it was widely assumed that President Victor Yanukovich and his supporters were behind the attacks. However a phone conversation between EU foreign policy chief Cathy Ashton and Estonia’s foreign minister Urmas Paet leaked to the public on March 5th reveals that the snipers in were actually from the new coalition government, and that Western diplomats knew this and covered it up.

StormCloudsGathering · Estonian Foreign Minister Ukraine - Snipers Were From The New Coalition - SHORT VERSION

Not only, this, the demonstrating factions, were led by few groups, the most prominent of these groups, is an organization called Svoboda. The Svoboda party which traces its roots to the Ukrainian partisan army of World War II, was loosely allied with Nazi Germany. Until 2004, Svoboda had been called the Social-Nationalist Party, a deliberate reference to the National Socialism of the Nazis.

As per more details leaked, this new neo-Nazi, faction that was protesting against Ukraine’s President, was allegedly supported by US. Victoria Nuland from the U.S. State Department meeting with Oleh Tyahnybok, leader of the Svoboda Party.

There was also a phone call leaked between Nuland and Svoboda leader, discussing whom to get into the govt.

So, in, summary, it appears, the West media and narrative that Putin was toppling the Viktor Yanukoych’s govt, in Ukraine, allegedly appears to be an insurgency created by US, by arming neo-nazi Svoboda party.



One very important part to be noted, is that Svoboda Party, has a battalion, called Azov Battalion, which now serves as the Ukrainian National Guard. Its a Nazi group, to which US was allegedly arming them with weapons for 3 years, until Congress banned it.

One important thing to note is, that after this arming of neo-nazi group, the Donbas regions in Ukraine, was constantly under terror and attacks for last 8 years. This war is going on for the ppl of these regions for last 8 years, which the Western or Corporate media has never shared.

Only few independent journalists, have talked about this issue, which as per her, more than 13,000 Ukrainians living in Donbas regions have been killed since 2014, mainly by the attacks of Azov Battalion, part of Ukraine’s National Guards.

Let’s take this as another piece of information.

Azov Battalion, that is part of current Ukraine National Guards,were, all documented by the UN as having committing war-crimes and atrocities.



Annexation of Crimea

After seeing, that the “democratically” elected govt. of Viktor Yanuvoch, got taken over by a rebel factions in a coup, which is believed to be propped by US support and armaments, Putin, knowing very well, the stories in Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, took swift action and sieged Crimea immediately after that.

Now, the West narrative and even the popular consensus is that Putin took Crimea away from Ukraine. And that is true. However, what details that are missing is, that Crimea was the peninsula, which Russia was already leasing from Ukraine for years (remember Yanukoych extending the lease until 2042?.

Why? Because Russia has its Naval base in Crimea. Its a very strategic location right in Black Sea.



The coup of Ukraine govt, by neo-nazi factions, made Putin worry about security and even intentions of West, that he decided to secure his naval base and most importantly, the Black Sea passage that can endanger Russia’s security. That is what I believe is the background of Crimea annexation, which is not shared a lot.

Phew!!

This is a lot!. I am going to stop further in this history, as every country has some history and there are narratives on both sides. However, I think this context and sequence was events is critical for us to make sense of what is going on.

From my interpretation, this is Russia’s Cuban Missile Crisis Moment.

In the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, America feared Soviet nuclear missiles that were placed 103 miles from the US border, and they took action. This was known as the Cuban Missile crisis.

After the pro-American Maidan uprising (or coup) in Ukraine, Russia similarly feared rapid NATO expansion leading to missiles at their own border. We have now returned to similar tensions, but the inverse. Putin’s demand has been to stop NATO expansion, as he no longer trusts them due to all prior experiences with US.

Ok, Let's move to Zelensky, Ukrainian President

Overnight, the some what, relatively unknown, President of a country, became the most talked about name in the world. He was the “hero” everyone cheered.

And to some way, its not wrong. Ppl in general want peace. And no wars. Zelensky was supposedly on the “right” side of this war, as per many. As he is defending his country.

Now, I want you to do keep that belief and notion. I do think fighting a war, isn’t for faint of hearts. So kudos to him for doing that

However, since our aim in this piece is to decipher the puzzle, seek information and find “signal” amongst the noise, I felt, its also important to talk a bit more on the other side of this war

I am going to skip to the part, where I first started doing some research on Zelensky to understand this side of this story better.

While reading about him post his speech, I was intrigued by a statement he made to public and the media. I was honestly a bit bothered. This was something which was deviating from one of my Principles above. And whenever that happens, it makes me take a step back.

The first thing I came across, something that wasn’t shared by media, was that Zelensky apparently had very poor approval ratings just before the war, which was constantly falling.



This was not that important, but a bit odd to me. Someone who is hailed overnight as savior, is apparently having bad approval ratings amongst its own ppl before the war.

It intrigued me. So, I wanted to know more.

Somewhere very early, this pic started floating on social media.



Ppl roared up. Social media, the world was inspired by this image.

However, this is not even the image taken now. This was taken last year, when Zelensky was visiting his troops for a formal visit.

However, I started seeing a sudden barrage of such pics, stories, videos, images, all over media and social media.



Even on Linkedin, talking and sharing political things around this story, became fashionable and the main part. If you aren’t doing it, then you are not supporting ppl.

Never had I seen such a huge and extremely fast swell in media, social media on a particular story as this.

Around that time, I came across the news story, that Zelensky announced how very early on in the war, when Russia hadn’t completely invaded Ukraine, but was mostly going into the Donbas regions to secure it’s independence as per Putin’s speech a few days prior to that, Russian soldiers killed 13 Ukrainian soldiers at Snake Island.

Videos circulated on social media. And Zelensky even announced to the public. The Western media, circulated it all over world.



This was a major event. It riled up the public all over world, social media videos circulating how the soldiers just before “dying” told the Russians “Russian Warship, Go Fuck yourself”, which even started becoming a meme.

Public support immediately swelled all over world. It was considered a major aggression by Russia, in killing these innocent soldiers.

However, the reality was, no such soldiers were killed by Russia.

Russia took over the island and made them surrender. Not a single soldier was shot or hurt.

Ignoring who is sharing this story, if you just look at the video, then below is a Ukrainian soldier, who is being shown the video of his President announcing to world, about his and his fellow soldiers death, while he is STILL alive. He cries after seeing this.

When this story started circulating, mainstream Western media, then later changed the story after few days, that the soldiers weren’t killed by Russia.



This became a HUGE red flag for me.

I understand, it’s war time. But it then makes it even more imperative for a leader of a warring country, to make sure he verifies what he is sharing is the right information. As that is bound to escalate things, something anyone who claims is trying to save ppl’s lives would do their best to avoid.

Plus, which President of a country won’t know the status of his soldiers and infantry from his army, before announcing to world, their death?

So, I wondered, was it a “mistake” or there is something else. And what could that something else be?

So, I dug more.

Zelensky, as I started suspecting, isn’t everything we have been told by media.

Apparently, Zelensky, just like many Ukrainian politicians and his predecessors, is extremely corrupt. His name appeared in Pandora Papers leak where he is found to have amassed huge properties and shell companies outside Ukraine.



While Zelensky, came to power, telling ppl that he is contesting to get rid of corruption, it worked the other way.

As per an accusation, [Zelensky himself has stashed more than a billion dollars, various villas in Miami and abroad].(https://eprimefeed.com/latest-news/zelensky-found-a-billion-dollars-and-a-villa-in-miami-2/20181/?amp=1)



Under his tenure, corruption was allegedly rampant. Nepotism, no prosecution of his own party leaders, was flourishing.





He is alleged to have close ties and has allegedly worked to help Igor Kolomoisky, a billionaire Oligarch investigated for money laundering and other corruption, by stalling bills in govt. against his companies.



Zelensky’s govt, before the war and pandemic, was dealing with its own corruption and shady things, by sacking young bright newcomers in civil posts, with politicians who had sketchy past.



So, I came across all this. It made me wonder again.

And then I started observing the actions and behavior of Zelensky’s govt.

There was always a constant messaging via social media from his govt.

He would make videos on his phone, in his emotive speeches, constantly demanding “no fly zone” over Ukraine from the West.

His govt. and his ministers, were very quick to announce any event as a major “escalation” and threat for the world.



His own Vice PM, even was encouraging public to sabotage “ordinary Russian citizens”. That’s another huge red flag for me. That’s not what you do if you have a character. Why would you attack innocent citizens if they aren’t in a war with you? Isn’t that’s what empathy is supposed to teach us?



I started thinking more.

Why is a govt and his PM, engaging in highly flagrant language, busy reaching out to every Silicon Valley Tech company, US, State politicians asking them to cancel everything for ordinary Russians? Why are they aren’t looking to de-escalate? The actions from them, do not suggest any kind of de-escalation. It only is escalating.

Why would Zelensky knowing fully well, that by involving NATO, it’s going to spill this war for everyone in the EU region, would make this a Europe wide humanitarian crisis, if not the entire world, is still forcing and pushing Western govt to create a “no fly zone”? You can’t have a no fly zone without, NATO airplanes actively taking down Russian planes. That’s a clear World War III.

Until it hit me one day.

In the interest of keeping this piece, a source of information, I would restrict my assessment of all the pieces to myself, and I would let you assess things yourself.

But I want to share a piece of history:

After World War II, Hermann Goring, Hitler’s right man & one of the biggest War criminal, who was sentenced to death, sneaked in some poison to commit suicide.



Just before taking the poison, he had these last words for an American journalist:

“Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship.

Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.

That is easy.

All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger.

It works the same in every country."

Everything you read, everything you see on media, social media is done with a purpose. It is to manipulate.

Everything is propaganda. Everything is manufactured for you to feel or think a certain way. What someone is doing, the images they are showing, it is very heroic or horrific, but it is designed to target your heart strings in a certain way. The others will do the same thing.

The war is real. The deaths are real. The sufferings is real.

But Everything else around that is manufactured for a particular reason. Even if it needs many ppl to die.*

Why am I bothered writing all this?

Many ppl have attacked me off late. Many have gotten angry. Many unfollowed.

A few years after 2011, killing of Gaddafi by US and NATO, and being told to us by all the media, how Gaddafi needed to be taken out, as he was killing his own ppl, a humanitarian crisis and how US need to intervene , I came across few pieces of information:

I dug more. Spent my entire weekend.

After that, I couldn’t eat for an entire day. I remember my mom called me that night, and I was talking to her, and suddenly I started crying. My mom was shocked. Her grown up adult son is crying all of a sudden over phone.

I cried. I felt very sad. What NATO and West did for Libya were narratives told to us, and destroyed an entire country. The images of kids crying and asking “why are you bombing us”, ppl, seeing their artificial water fountain built by Gaddafi for his ppl, destroyed by NATO bombings. It broke me.

I decided, I will always speak out, when I see a wrong happening around me. I would not ignore or be quiet.

I started writing a lot on such things.

I was wrong.

I forgot, that Truth is like a foster child.

In a Time of Universal Deceit — Telling the Truth Is a Revolutionary Act” However, Truth is a foster child.

It doesn’t get accepted the same as Deceit, his popular & attractive step-sister who is dating Narrative, a charming, handsome guy she likes

There is a notion we all like to believe in. That Democracy is a good thing.

That it allows ppl to speak for themselves. While I myself is a big champion of Democracy, having born and raised in such an environment, it doesn’t mean every undemocratic leader is bad for their country.

China, is not Democratic. Yes, we can say, the freedoms to speak against the State are very limited, even billionaires like Jack Ma, could go silent for months. But as long as the ppl of that country are doing that trade offs for themselves for a better livelihood, it’s ultimately their prerogative.

Going to really help a country suffering from a despotic ruler, is a good thing.

But going , on the pretext of a “false narrative” to mainly topple a sovereign govt, for regime change, how is that democratic?

Libya, had one of the best per capita GDP in the world under Gaddafi.

Almost everybody had an apartment to live, built by their leader.



He was a dictator, which I am sure, a lot of oppressive systems and rules, mostly for other foreign countries. But if that culture in the country, prefer the Tribal System, a system run by a head of tribe, leading and taking decisions for entire tribe, who are we to interfere and seek change? Just because someone wanted to sell their oil in a different system?

And who we are to interfere in other regions political matters just so that we can establish our military supremacy over other nations?

I watched a Ukrainian kid, after boarding the train with his mom, crying that his dad cannot accompany them as the Zelensky govt. forced all males above 18, to be conscripted in the war, irrespective of them wanting it or not.

I saw, a woman, not willing to leave, as his husband won’t be allowed to leave by the govt.

I see, the ordinary Russian citizens, being targeted collectively, by businesses, Western govts sanctions, ppl around the world, a complete social and cultural boycott of a country, pushing it to poverty and stone age.



I saw even Russian cats are banned.

That Animals also had a nationality now.

The images shown to us of women with guns, young men, on the field, with poignant messages, bravely fighting for their country, makes our heart swell with support/pride.

That’s how social media is made to work.

But have we ever paused, taken a moment, and asked, why am I being shown this? Who can potentially benefit from all of this?

Emotions on social media need to be on extremes. Balanced takes aren’t “liked”, “shared” by many.

Its the outrageousness, the “heart-warming” messages, that spread the narratives.

The deluge of images of Ukraine heroes and fighters, the relentless stories about Russia’s ineptness in combat. It’s savagery, it’s “bombing” of nuclear reactors, its “ghastly” shooting of ppl, is all done to serve a single purpose: prepare you for war.

To use us as a pawn. To make you think, you are helping those who are suffering. While, benefitting those who really want these sufferings!

Because, Truth is always the first casualty Of a War!

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